Zimbabwe津巴布韦Don't rush it切莫仓促行事
Aug 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition
Zimbabwe's rightful leader should not be bounced into a bad deal
津巴布韦的合法领导人不应受到引诱，盲目妥协PRESSURE is mounting on Morgan Tsvangirai, who in a fair world would already be Zimbabwe's leader, to compromise with the election-usurping Robert Mugabe, in order to forge a unity government to put Zimbabwe out of its misery. But hold on. A bad deal may well be worse than no deal, if it lets Mr Mugabe stay in power, with Mr Tsvangirai's lot as supplicant partners in a government of bogus unity. Even if he seems to be prolonging Zimbabwe's agony, Mr Tsvangirai should resist the blandishments of Thabo Mbeki, the South African president, who has been trying to mediate an agreement that would in effect leave Mr Mugabe and his thugs in charge.
若处在一个公平的环境，茨万吉拉伊应该已经成为津巴布韦总统了。目前要求他与篡夺选举结果的穆加贝妥协的压力正急剧增长。但是且慢。达成一个糟糕协议完全 有可能比没有达成任何协议更糟糕——穆加贝继续掌权，而茨万吉拉伊则在伪联合政府中扮演没有实权的合作者角色。茨万吉拉伊应该拒绝南非总统姆贝基的引诱，即使这样看起来是他拖延了津巴布韦的冲突。姆贝基正试图斡旋双方达成的协议实际上可以令穆加贝及其党羽得以继续留任。
The fact that negotiations have got under way, even if they have recently stalled, marks progress. The old man has given ground merely by declaring himself ready to share power. Mr Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change, which is acknowledged by all sides to have won a parliamentary election in March while its leader indisputably won the first round of a presidential poll, have suggested that Mr Mugabe should become a ceremonial president and Mr Tsvangirai an executive prime minister in a transitional period before fresh elections are held. Mr Mugabe seems ready to let the opposition handle the bankrupt country's finances and even its foreign affairs but insists on controlling the rump of the security forces, which may anyway already be running the country.
虽然谈判最近陷入了僵局，但它的展开就标志着进步。穆加贝仅通过宣布自己愿意分享权力以示让步。茨万吉拉伊和他的“民主变革运动”建议，在新一轮公正选举 展开之前，先成立一个过渡政府，由穆加贝象征性担任总统，茨万吉拉伊担任行政总理。事实上各方均承认，“民主变革运动”赢得了此前3月份举行的议会选举， 茨万吉拉伊在第一轮总统选举中胜出。穆加贝似乎愿意让对手掌管这个已然破产的国家的金融甚至外交事务，但牢牢掌控着军权，事实上目前正是军队管理着这个国家。
That is where Mr Tsvangirai must remain firm. If he enters a government without acquiring authority over the armed men, he will become an unwitting agent for perpetuating the cruel and venal order that has turned Zimbabwe from an African bread basket into a husk of destitution.
这正是伊万吉拉伊必须立场坚定的地方。如果尚未获得军权就进入政府，他将不知不觉间成为官员贪脏枉法、人民民不聊生的罪魁祸首，正是混乱的秩序令津巴布韦从非洲粮仓沦落至物质匮乏的境地。
In truth, it is devilish hard to judge how much ground it would be wise for Mr Tsvangirai to give, in the hope of gradually gaining rightful power. Once his foot is in the door of government, with the cheers of the people and the backing of foreign governments and aid agencies, he would strive to build and then assert his authority. But Mr Mugabe and his security men, who could end up in the International Criminal Court at The Hague if he bowed out, do not see it that way at all. And Mr Mbeki seems content to leave Mr Mugabe in place, in the hope that age alone will gradually ease him out.
实际上我们基本上无法判断，为了获取合法权力，茨万吉拉伊究竟应该做出多少让步。一旦他踏入政府的大门，在民众的欢呼声和国外政府及援助机构的支援下，他一定会竭力建立并维护自己的政权。但穆加贝及其军队可不这么看，一旦穆加贝被扫地出门，他们很可能被送上海牙国际法庭。此外，姆贝基似乎同意穆加贝留下，他指望年岁的增加会令穆加贝慢慢淡出。
He won't be there for ever
他不可能永不离任Nonetheless, horrible as Zimbabwe's plight is today, time may just be on Mr Tsvangirai's side. A big factor in his favour is the economy's accelerating meltdown. With inflation now officially at 11,000,000% a year, the currency is virtually worthless. The latest harvest has been dire; bread is running short; civil servants' pay is pointless; barter, the black market, subsistence, remittances, charity and foreign aid (if Mr Mugabe lets it in) will soon be how most Zimbabweans survive. Foreign governments, bankers and aid givers should co-ordinate and display an emergency package, then make it plain they will ride to the rescue only if a unity government is transitional, with Mr Mugabe at best in a temporary ceremonial role and his security men, who have bluntly said they would never serve under Mr Tsvangirai's leadership, removed forthwith.
不过，尽管津巴布韦现状糟糕，时间可能会站在茨万吉拉伊这边。他大大受益于目前该国加速崩溃的经济现 状。官方的通货膨胀数字是每年11000000%，货币实际上一文不值。粮食丰收无望，面包开始短缺，公务员工资无从指望。物物交换、黑市、汇款、慈善和 国外援助（如果穆加贝允许）将成为大多数津巴布韦人生存的途径。外国政府、银行家和援助者应该互相协调，向外界展示出一个紧急情况下的一揽子救援计划，并 且声明，只有在如下情况下，他们才会提供援助：联合政府只是一个过渡政府，穆加贝至多只能在该政府担任象征性职位，立即解职那些声称永不听众茨万吉拉伊领 导的军人。
But why should Mr Mugabe co-operate in his own demise? Other dictators, such as North Korea's Kim Jong-il, remain doggedly in power, sealed off from their pauperised people. Mr Mugabe, sycophant-surrounded and with his own foreign-currency wallet, is short of neither bread nor baubles, and may do the same. Yet his regime is more susceptible to pressure than it seems. Zimbabwe still has a kernel of civil society and free institutions. Nor is it walled off from its neighbours, now hosting millions of sullen exiles. Levy Mwanawasa, president of next-door Zambia, who died this week, sorely wanted Mr Mugabe to go (see article); other African leaders are becoming impatient. The best memorial to the decent Zambian would be for his peers to hasten Mr Mugabe's removal—and not to cajole Mr Tsvangirai into signing a deal that would leave the tyrant in charge as his country disintegrates.
但是穆加贝有何理由要在其政治生涯的尾声配合呢？别的独裁者，比如朝鲜的 金正日，依然牢牢掌握着政权，与他们靠救济度日的国民相隔离。佞人环绕且有海外存款的穆加贝衣食无忧、怡然自得，他很可能做出同样的事来。不过，穆加贝的 政权更易受到外界压力的影响。津巴布韦依然拥有公民社会和自由制度的内核。它有数百万国民流亡在外，并没有与其邻国隔绝。邻国赞比亚总统利维·姆瓦纳瓦萨 （本周去世）强烈希望穆加贝离职；其它非洲领导人也开始变得不耐烦。津巴布韦正分崩离析，姆瓦纳瓦萨的同僚若能加快穆加贝离职，并且不引诱茨万吉拉伊签署 使穆加贝得以留任的协议，就是对其逝去的正派总统的最好纪念。
[ 此帖被陈杰在2009-05-22 15:21重新编辑 ]
